Lee's summits in China, Japan a delicate exercise in 'managed stability'
2026.01.15 18:37
President Lee Jae Myung has concluded a high-stakes diplomatic marathon, starting the year with back-to-back summits in China and Japan.
Over the course of a week, Lee met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Nara, seeking to thaw frosty relations with Beijing and solidify a forward-looking partnership with Tokyo.
While the first year of his administration was characterized by a pivot to the West and the solidification of the alliance with the United States, this New Year diplomacy signals a strategic shift toward regional stabilization and what officials have dubbed a “managed stability.”
Experts say that while the packaging of these summits is polished, the underlying strategic road maps remain underdeveloped, and the managed stability may be a reprieve rather than a permanent peace.
Lee's four-day state visit to China from Jan. 4 to 7 marked the first time in nearly nine years that a South Korean president received a full state welcome in Beijing. It was a symbolic end to the long diplomatic winter that had persisted since the 2016 Thaad deployment.
In talks with Lee, Xi reached for an old proverb: “Three feet of ice doesn’t melt at once, and fruit will drop on its own when ripe.” This was a clear signal that while Beijing is open to dialogue, it expects Seoul to show patience regarding the accumulated frost in bilateral ties.
Rather than pushing for sweeping concessions on sensitive security issues, Lee focused on concrete, mutually beneficial exchanges.
He even suggested a new installment of “panda diplomacy,” requesting a pair of giant pandas for a zoo in Gwangju — a move designed to soften public sentiment in Korea, where anti-China sentiment remains at historic highs.
The Blue House declared the China visit a stepping stone toward "full restoration of relations," but experts remain skeptical of the term in the absence of a clear road map.
"We must seriously consider what 'restoration' actually means," noted Kang Jun-young, a Chinese studies professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.
"China is trying to keep South Korea from fully locking into trilateral cooperation with the United States and Japan," said Kang. “They see South Korea as the weakest link in that chain and will use historical cooperation as a wedge.”
If Beijing was about melting ice, the trip to Japan from Tuesday to Wednesday was about turning the page.
Breaking from the traditional Tokyo-centric itinerary, Lee visited Nara, Takaichi's hometown and political base.
The defining image of the summit was the two leaders engaging in an impromptu joint drum session to songs from Netflix's "Kpop Demon Hunters" and BTS, using cultural soft power to cover the jagged edges of historical grievances.
Beyond the drums, the two produced a humanitarian approach to history. They agreed to launch a joint excavation and DNA identification project for Korean forced laborers who were killed when Japan's Chosei coal mine flooded in 1942 — a “low-hurdle historical issue” as it was already a project initiated by Japanese civic group, according to Lee Won-deog, professor of Japanese studies at Kookmin University.
“The Korean government’s participation in a project led by Japanese NGOs allowed the Lee administration to demonstrate its 'two-track diplomacy' strategy [separating historical reconciliation from future-oriented cooperation],” he explained.
Korea also formally requested accession to the Japan-led Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), marking a significant step toward building an economic community between the two nations.
The institutionalization of “shuttle diplomacy” was another key outcome, confirming plans to regularize back-and-forth leader exchanges despite changes in Japan’s leadership.
The most perilous part of Lee’s marathon was navigating the escalating rivalry between Beijing and Tokyo over Taiwan. Just weeks prior, Takaichi raised human rights concerns about China’s treatment of Uyghurs during the APEC summit and engaged in diplomatic exchanges with Taiwan’s representative office. She later stated that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could be a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan, prompting China to impose export controls on rare-earth metals.
Lee trod carefully to avoid getting sucked into either side’s wake.
Before arriving in Beijing, he went on Chinese state television to reaffirm South Korea's respect for the "One China" principle.
Kang points out a critical nuance in the language used, with China viewing that South Korea must follow the "One China" principle — meaning Beijing's absolute sovereignty over Taiwan — while the reality is that since the bilateral diplomatic relations were formed in 1992, Seoul has only "respected" China’s claim that Taiwan is part of China.
When Xi urged Lee to “stand on the right side of history” and “make the right strategic choice,” Lee diplomatically downplayed it as a "Confucian saying," effectively sidestepping a demand to distance Seoul from the United States and Japan.
At the same time, Lee worked to reassure Japan.
In a televised NHK interview just before his arrival in Japan, he emphasized that "relations with Japan are just as important as relations with China" — which was received with great relief and emotion in Japan, paving the way for the warm reception Lee received in Nara, including Takaichi’s rare personal greeting at Lee’s hotel.
During the summit, Lee avoided any direct mention of Taiwan in joint statements with Japan, sticking to more general phrases about regional stability.
Lee acknowledged that South Korea’s capacity to mediate or intervene in Sino-Japanese disputes is limited.
"If and when the time comes, we’ll find a role we can play," Lee said when asked about the prospect of Seoul arbitrating between Beijing and Tokyo in a recent press briefing. "But right now, what we can do is very limited.”
Experts see the Taiwan dispute not only as a flashpoint but paradoxically as a unique opportunity for South Korea — essentially, one that could serve as Lee's diplomatic "trump card."
Takaichi’s government is heading into a national election on Feb. 8, and despite her strong approval ratings, securing a legislative majority remains uncertain. A successful summit with a key regional partner, such as South Korea, could offer a timely diplomatic boost.
"Takaichi’s government reached out to South Korea to escape isolation caused by her Taiwan remarks, while Xi’s government sought to prevent South Korea from joining Japan’s anti-China line and treated Lee to a state visit," Prof. Lee said.
Despite the managed stability in Northeast Asia’s fraught relationships, the two summits did not resolve the contentious issues that most public attention is focused on.
One point of contention with China is the Yellow Sea’s provisional measure zone, a joint fishing area that is increasingly marked by tension.
President Lee proposed a clean division through a maritime median line. But Beijing has long resisted any boundary-setting in disputed waters, suggesting that the upcoming working-level talks are unlikely to yield the clean results the Blue House hopes for.
Lifting the Hallyu ban, or the restriction on Korean cultural content, remains ambiguous as well.
“China views foreign cultural influence through the lens of national security,” said Kang. While Xi agreed to expand exchanges gradually, Kang said he believes this will be limited to "nonindustrial sectors" like Go or football, rather than a full opening for games and K-dramas.
In Nara, the usual flashpoints such as demanding fresh apologies on colonial-era abuses, such as wartime forced labor or the “comfort women,” were similarly sidestepped, as was the territorial dispute over Dokdo.
While the upcoming Takeshima Day in Japan next month will be the first true test of Takaichi’s willingness to prioritize the diplomatic thaw in the Nara summit, analysts suggest she will refrain, at least for now, from stoking historical controversies such as sending cabinet officials to the event or visiting the Yasukuni Shrine.
“Takaichi’s political DNA clearly reflects revisionist tendencies on historical issues,” said Prof. Lee. “But given Japan’s precarious geopolitical position — caught between U.S.-China strategic rivalry — and the shared strategic interests with South Korea, she is unlikely to risk diplomatic friction over history disputes in the near term.”
The disparity between the two summits regarding Pyongyang was stark.
President Lee asked China to “act as a mediator of peace,” and Xi "acknowledged" Seoul's efforts and agreed that “patience is needed,” while avoiding any concrete commitment beyond China’s usual calls for dialogue.
“China continues to view North Korea as a strategic asset to counterbalance the United States, Japan and South Korea. It will never give that up,” said Kang.
Over in Japan, the two U.S. allies were more explicit.
Lee and Takaichi reaffirmed their commitment to the “complete denuclearization" of North Korea and vowed to coordinate closely on North Korea policy with Washington.
North Korea, for its part, responded to Lee’s summit diplomacy with familiar hostility.
On the very day Lee arrived in Beijing, North Korea launched a salvo of ballistic missiles into the sea, its first tests of 2026.
More pushback came in the form of blistering rhetoric from Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un’s influential sister and voice on inter-Korean affairs, mocking Lee’s outreach to foreign leaders of “solicitation diplomacy abroad" and expectations of renewed dialogue as a “wild dreams.”
Lee’s government is looking to upcoming diplomatic turning points, including a Trump–Xi summit in April and any opportunity to restart U.S.-North Korea dialogue then.
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