[Yasuto Watanabe] Building the energy resilience ASEAN+3 needs
2026.03.24 05:31
Energy systems across ASEAN+3 (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, plus China, Japan, and South Korea) are under increasing strain. Climate shocks are threatening infrastructure and supply. The rapid expansion of AI and digital infrastructure is driving a surge in electricity demand. And geopolitical tensions are adding new volatility to global energy markets.
Although the region is more resilient to energy shocks than in the past, these forces are creating new challenges for macroeconomic stability. Climate change is no longer only an environmental issue. It is increasingly testing energy systems — including power generation, fuel supply chains, and electricity networks — with far-reaching effects on the broader economy.
Globally, natural disasters caused around $320 billion in economic losses in 2024, with the Asia-Pacific region among the most affected. In Southeast Asia, floods and typhoons regularly disrupt food production, supply chains, and infrastructure, including power systems and fuel transport networks that are critical to energy supply.
Such disruptions can spread quickly through the real economy. Damage to energy infrastructure can interrupt electricity supply and raise costs, while floods often push up food prices and disrupt logistics. Reconstruction then increases fiscal expenditures, while losses to businesses weaken balance sheets and increase credit risks for banks and insurers.
Managing climate risks therefore requires more than emergency response plans. It demands sustained investment in climate adaptation and stronger financial preparedness. The United Nations Environment Programme estimates that East Asia and the Pacific needs about $141 billion annually to finance adaptation — more than any other developing region. Yet disaster-related fiscal expenditures in many economies still tend to occur only after disasters occur.
Technological change is also reshaping global electricity demand. The rapid expansion of AI and digital infrastructure (data centers) is driving large increases in electricity consumption. According to the International Energy Agency, electricity demand in Southeast Asia grew by more than 7 percent in 2024, and is projected to double by 2050 — among the fastest growth rates in the world. At the same time, the region is emerging as an attractive destination for data-center investment, with Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia having become major regional hubs for cloud services and AI infrastructure.
As digital infrastructure expands, electricity demand is expected to rise further. Power systems will need to increase capacity while remaining consistent with climate goals. Though renewable capacity has grown, if generation cannot scale quickly enough to match rising demand, governments may face pressure to rely more heavily on fossil fuels to ensure a reliable power supply.
Finally, geopolitical tensions are adding another layer of uncertainty. Conflicts and trade frictions threaten to disrupt global energy supply chains, shift investment decisions, and amplify volatility in fuel prices. These risks are particularly relevant for ASEAN+3 economies, many of which rely heavily on imported fuels, including liquefied natural gas.
When global energy prices rise sharply or become more volatile, the spillover effects often show up as higher inflation, increased fiscal pressures, and wider external imbalances. Taken together, recent developments are adding to the stress on energy systems across ASEAN+3, underscoring the importance of enhancing energy resilience to safeguard the region’s macroeconomic stability.
What can be done? For starters, investing more in climate-resilient infrastructure can reduce energy systems’ vulnerability to natural disasters and help limit economic disruptions when shocks occur. Second, expanding electricity generation capacity, strengthening transmission networks, and accelerating the deployment of non-fossil energy sources has become essential to meeting rising power demand and supporting climate objectives. Regional initiatives such as the ASEAN Power Grid can strengthen the cross-border electricity trade, diversify energy sources, and improve the resilience of regional energy systems.
Third, ASEAN+3 countries can build greater resilience through financial mechanisms. Enhancing preparedness through new financial and insurance instruments and capital-market solutions can help governments manage the fiscal costs of climate shocks and support investment in resilient infrastructure. Within the ASEAN+3 Finance Process (an important platform for regional financial cooperation), discussions are underway on a disaster-risk financing initiative aimed at strengthening fiscal risk management and expanding financial instruments for disaster response.
At the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office, our analysis and regional surveillance increasingly highlights how climate risks, energy market volatility, and rising electricity demand can interact to create macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Our annual consultation reports now incorporate environmental assessment sheets to determine how climate risks may affect macroeconomic conditions and fiscal sustainability.
Strengthening energy resilience is not only an energy-policy priority; it is a macroeconomic imperative. ASEAN+3 economies stand at the intersection of climate risk, technological change, and geopolitical uncertainty. By investing in resilient, sustainable energy systems and strengthening regional cooperation, we can better navigate these challenges while supporting stable and inclusive economic growth. The latest wave of global turmoil has only lent more urgency to the task.
Yasuto Watanabe
Yasuto Watanabe is director and CEO of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO). The views expressed here are the writer’s own. — Ed.
(Project Syndicate)
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